Monthly Mutuals Analysis

Dateline: 6/22/98

Euros Still Rolling!

North American and Asian markets suffered a bit of a shakeout in May, which is reflected in the charts of our Power Performers and our Top 25 for the three month period ending May 31. The number of Power Performers declined from 52 to 42 in May, all of the ones failing to repeat being Canadian or American. And the number of International funds increased from six to seven. (The Templeton International Stock Fund dropped from the list but two Euro funds were added.)

But it's the Three Month Performers that is really striking. The Top 25 to the end of April were a mixed bag with seven being European funds. But this month - wow! Fully 22 of the Top 25 Three Month Performers to the end of May are European!

The best bets of these if you're looking to buy would be the ones that made both the Top 25 Three Month Performers list and the Power Performers list. These are the Dynamic Europe Fund, Fidelity European Growth, Royal European Growth, and Invesnat European Equity.

Why are the European funds doing so well? Simple economics. Europe is moving inexorably closer to a full European common market with freer trade, more competition and a universal currency. In fact, many predict the Eurobuck will rival the American Greenback as the world's reserve currency (despite the loer than expected backing by gold). The result is increased productivity, a sense of optimism and, not surprisingly, a booming stock market.

As I've pointed out in various features over the last two months, there are some signs that the North American markets may be near a top. Personally I'm taking a cautious approach. Although my philosophy had been buy and hold up until recently, I've now opted for a reduced risk strategy. I've put into practice the sell criteria that I apply in my test portfolios here, namely sell if a fund dips 5% from its previous high. I've now moved a fairly large portion of my personal portfolios into cash or money markets.

I even sold a substantial part of my AIC Advantage holdings as the price dropped 5% from its previous high recently. I kept about a third of the shares (I haven't completely shaken the buy and hold approach), but sold the rest. I was heavily overweighted in AIC Advantage and have decided to balance out my holdings a bit more.

I will be re-assessing my holdings during the week and may load up on some more Euro funds. They are the only ones matching my buy criteria right now.

Now on to our portfolio review.


Portfolio Review


Two of our three portfolios all gained slightly this past month. The other (Portfolio # 1) declined. Since all are fully invested and none had funds that dropped 5% during the month, we are holding all our positions. The charts, then, only show the name of the investment, the number of shares and the current price.

Portfolio # 1 (Buy Strategy - Fund must be in the Top 25 Performers for a Three Month period and the One Month performance should not be negative nor excessive compared to the Three Month. Sell on 5% slide.)

Portfolio Value at 6/19/98: $ 29,397.86 - up 17.6% since inception (12/22/97)

Fund # of Shares (End) Price (6/19/98) Value of Investment
AGF European Growth 354.3 $18.64 $6604.15
AIM Europa Fund 300.12 $20.82 $6248.50
National Trust Dividend 270.7 $20.13 $5449.19
O'Donnell US Mid-Cap 663.1 $8.16 $5410.90
Standard Life Cdn Dividend 244.3 $22.65 $5533.39
Cash 151.73 $1.00 $151.73

Portfolio # 2 (Buy Strategy - Same as Portfolio # 1 plus the fund must have a better than 15% performance for the One Year, Three Year and Five Year periods. Sell at 5% slide)

Portfolio Value at 6/19/98: $ 27,689.07 - up 10.8% since inception (12/22/97)

Fund # of Shares (End) Price (6/19/98) Value of Investment
Associate Investors 393.6 $13.81 $5435.62
Atlas American Large Cap Growth 150.2 $35.99 $5405.70
Ethical North American Equity 159.3 $35.67 $5682.23
Investors US Growth 111.8 $51.13 $5716.33
National Trust Dividend 270.7 $20.13 $5449.19
Cash 0 $1 $0

Portfolio # 3 (Buy Strategy - Fund must be a Power Performer and it must have positive Three Month and One Month figures. Sell on 5% slide.)

Portfolio Value at 6/19/98: $ 28,816.10 - up 15.3% since inception (12/22/97)

Fund # of Shares (End) Price (6/19/98) Value of Investment
AGF American Growth 213.7 $25.82 $5517.73
AIC Value 119.0 $48.49 $5770.31
Ethical North American Equity 159.3 $35.67 $5682.23
Fidelity European Growth 201.8 $29.69 $5991.44
Investors US Growth 114.5 $51.13 $5854.39
Cash 0 $1.00 $0

Controls: (2 Funds purchased to buy and hold as benchmarks for our portfolios.)

Fund # of Shares Price (6/19/98) Value of Investment
AIC Advantage 2 3093.4 $9.16 $28,335.54
Trimark Fund 1137.5 $23.30 $26504.89

The three portfolios can be characterized as aggressive, conservatively aggressive and conservative. Aggressive Portfolio # 1 retains its lead overall but conservative Portfolio # 3 overtook the benchmark AIC Advantage 2 which lost ground over the month. Portfolio # 2 follows that and conservative benchmark Trimark Fund brings up the rear. Here is a chart of the standings.

Rank Portfolio Last Month Rank Value Gain/Loss for Month
1 Portfolio # 1 1 $29,397.86 - $267.71
2 Portfolio # 3 3 $28,816.1 + $490.97
3 AIC Advantage 2 2 $28,335.54 - $928.02
4 Portfolio # 2 4 $27,689.07 + $53.51
5 Trimark Fund 5 $26,504.89 - $932.79

Note that Portfolio # 3, based on my Power Performers, is continuing to gain ground on the leaders. This portfolio was largely in cash for the initial two months as not enough funds filled the buy criteria. Now that it is fully invested, it is outperforming the others having come from the back of the pack to # 2 and moving up smartly.

Links to Sites Mentioned This Week

Marco's Power Performers to May 31, 1998

Top 25 Three Month Performers to May 31, 1998

Funds Performing Better Than 15% Annual Compounded Rate Over 15 Years

Funds Performing Better Than 15% Annual Compounded Rate Over 10 Years

Marco's Power Performers Index Page


Disclaimer: As with all my columns here, I should re-iterate a precaution. I am not a professional financial advisor. I am a financial journalist and editorialist. The views in these columns are my personal opinions.

American Readers: Looking for a broker who can sell you Canadian stocks? One of my brokers is licensed to sell securities to Americans in 26 states. She works for Canaccord Capital which is an excellent company with a superb research department. They are particularly knowledgeable on resource issues. Send me a note if you want to get in touch with her.

Investing (Canada) Notes:

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