Dateline: 12/15/98

Early this year I ran an extra feature called Carnuck the Magnificent, a takeoff on Johnny Carson's Carnack routine. You know the one. Carson wears this big swami headress, Ed McMahon gives him sealed envelopes and Carson in his Carnack persona spits out the answers to the questions inside the envelopes.

One of the reasons I took this approach to making predictions for the future is that I don't think one can predict the future at all. Those great mystics the trashy tabloids bring out every January are just so much bunk. I read them occasionally for a laugh, but really! My favorite prediction was in the Weekly World News several years ago. One seer predicted a wave of anger would sweep America when Japanese interests took over General Motors, not because of the takeover, but because they would change the name of Chevrolet to Chevroray!

Nevertheless, an intelligent person can extrapolate from current situations and make educated guesses about the future, which is what I tried to do in January. So now I will revisit that article to see how Carnack did. The predictions as originally published are reproduced here. My comments of today are in italics. I left out much of the patter, so if you want to read the original article click here now, then come back and read the rest.

Carnuck the Magnificent

Prediction # 1:

I held the first envelope to my head and concentrated mightily (as swamis are wont to do) and gave forth this answer: "I get knocked down, but I get up again. You’re never gonna keep me down."

Ed mumbled something about Chumbawamba, then opened the envelope with a flourish (as Ed is wont to do) and read the question: "What will be the theme song for gold bugs in 1998?"

Translation: Gold will make a comeback in 1998. I goofed on this one. Gold made a temporary comeback, going as high as $320, then plummeting to a low of $274 before finding a narrow trading range of $290-$300. At least I didn't go out on a limb like Vronsky and predict that gold had a feasible certainty of reaching the $400 level.

Prediction # 2:

"Frying, rolling and more user fees for government services," said I.

"Name a pan, a pin and a pain," read Ed.

Translation: There will be more user fees charged for government services.I didn't keep track, but I believe I was correct on this one.

Prediction # 3:

"A zigazigah and the Asian currency crisis," I intoned.

"What are two things people will still be trying to comprehend the meaning of in 1998?" Ed read, adjusting his glasses.

Translation: Few people will really understand the Asian crisis. That turned out to be correct. I don't believe many do understand it. I'm not even sure I understand it myself though I lean towards The Privateer's view that it was caused by an unprecedented inflationary credit expansion that imploded, resulting in deflation.

Prediction # 4:

"I’ve got one hand in your pocket and the other one is giving a high five!" said I mysteriously.

Ed pulled out the card and read, "How will Finance Minister Paul Martin adapt fellow Ottawa resident Alanis Morrisette’s lyrics when he records a cover of her song this year?"

Translation: Taxes will go up. I believe I was partially correct here. Although Martin offered some tax relief in his 1998 budget, it was targeted towards lower income families. He eliminated the hated surtax for those earning below $50,000, but did not eliminate it completely. CPP premiums increased as per proposals presented in 1997 and Martin is going around giving people the high five over his "balancing" of the budget.

Prediction # 5:

"Marijuana advocate Marc Emery and the TSE 300," I snorted.

Ed looked at me and said, "Gesundheit," and proceeded to tear open the envelope. He held up the card and read "Name two things headed for new highs in 1998."

Translation: The stock market will reach new highs. I was partially correct here as it was the Dow and not the TSE that made spectacular gains. I thought the TSE would outperform the Dow this year. I was wrong there.

Prediction # 6:

"Bre-X shares and the Canada Pension Plan," I sighed.

"What can people count on to be worthless now and in the future?" Ed intoned.

Translation: Don't count on the Canada Pension Plan for your retirement. This is a long term prediction and the CPP is still holding together for now. But I'll stand by this one. I don't expect to get a dime from the CPP when I retire in fifteen years. If I do, it's gravy.

Prediction # 7:

Finally Ed roared out (as only Ed can do) "I have in my hand, the final, the last, the ultimate envelope. Oh great and magnificent Carnuck, can you tell me, oh stupendous one, what the answer is to the last question I hold in my hand?"

I peered enigmatically at Ed, wrinkled my brow and said, "The Spice Girls and the Canadian Dollar."

"Whew," said Ed. "Even without hearing the question I can tell from the answer I’m glad I’m not a Canadian."

"Hold on just a cotton pickin' minute," I said. "You don't know what the question is. Maybe it's 'Name two things that will continue to be perky and upbeat in 1998'."

"Ha, " he laughed as he tore open the envelope. "Fat chance. Here's the question, oh learned one. What two things will have even less substance in 1998 than they had last year?"

Translation: The dollar will continue to drop. I was absolutely correect here. The Spice Girls lost Ginger - i.e. 20% of the group; the dollar didn't lose quite that much, but still took a hefty dive.

Score: If you count Prediction # 6 as correct and # 4 as half right, I got five and a half out of seven. Not too bad. Gee, maybe I should submit my predictions to the Weekly World News!

Note: A new set of Carnuck predictions will come out in January.

Copyright Notice: The wizard graphic was taken from Randi's Graphics Collection and is, to the best of his knowledge, in the public domain. If this graphic is, in fact, copyrighted, please notify me and I will remove it immediately.

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